NFL teams participating in conference title games predominantly utilize first-round draft picks for the pivotal quarterback position.

Joe Theismann secured victory in a Super Bowl and participated in another while representing Washington, having initially joined the NFL as a fourth-round draft pick with a different team.

Under the guidance of coach Joe Gibbs, who earned a place in the Hall of Fame with three championships and three different starting quarterbacks, including Mark Rypien selected in the sixth round and Doug Williams, initially a first-round pick, detouring to the USFL before reaching the pinnacle of the sport.

Considering Theismann's personal experiences, he questions the commonly held belief that teams must secure a quarterback early in the draft. Despite recent trends showing a preference for first-round quarterbacks among conference title game participants, Theismann challenges the notion of its vital importance. This trend is visible in upcoming matchups, such as Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs facing Lamar Jackson's Ravens in the AFC and Jared Goff's Lions against Brock Purdy's 49ers in the NFC, with three out of four matchups aligning with this pattern.

“I’ve always said this: The quarterback is the most dependent player on the field. So if you’ve got first-round talent at that position, good for you, but that’s also no guarantee.” Theismann, who reached the Super Bowls in the 1982 and 1983 seasons, winning against the Dolphins in the first and losing to the Raiders in the second, expressed his perspective. “I definitely don’t believe that being a No. 1 pick is the key to getting to a championship game. It’s still a team game,”

Certainly not. In assessing talent, nothing is guaranteed in terms of realizing potential displayed in college or flourishing in the professional arena. However, the selection of a quarterback at or near the top of the draft often serves as an indicator of future success. This is why individuals like USC’s Caleb Williams, UNC’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are anticipated to be early draft picks in April.

Purdy gained notoriety as the final and 262nd pick in the 2022 draft, securing the "Mr. Irrelevant" label, his remarkable journey includes a second appearance in the NFC championship game within just two NFL seasons. However, the fate of the Super Bowl contenders in Las Vegas on Feb. 11 will largely hinge on the performances of three highly drafted players.

“You get a player like that with the last pick of the draft? Literally like playing the lottery and winning the Powerball when it’s at $2 billion.” Trent Williams said about Purdy. “Super proud of him. I just hope he continues to blaze trails and just show people that draft status is what happens on draft day. What happens after that is up to you,”

Lamar Jackson is the newest quarterback in the mix, making him the 30th to start a conference title game in the last 15 seasons. His remarkable journey involves a standout performance in a 34-10 victory over the Houston Texans, where he threw for two touchdowns and ran for two more. This success follows an initial playoff record of 1-3.

Among the 30 quarterbacks who have advanced to this stage, a clear trend emerges: 20 were selected in the first round of the NFL draft. This group includes prominent names such as Goff, the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, Mahomes, taken at No. 10 in 2017, and Jackson, chosen at No. 32 in 2018. The distribution extends to five second-round picks, two third-round selections, one from the sixth round (Tom Brady), and one from the seventh round (Purdy). Remarkably, only one of these 30 quarterbacks went undrafted: Case Keenum, whose Minnesota Vikings narrowly missed a Super Bowl appearance after the 2017 season.

Theismann said, It’s always good to have that one guy in there that might say: ‘I don’t fit that mold that everybody projects for us. But I still can get the job done.’”

Purdy is delivering impressive performance statistics, comparable to those typically associated with first-round draft picks," noted Christian McCaffrey, the running back for San Francisco and a unanimous selection for The Associated Press 2023 NFL All-Pro Team. "It's no longer surprising; it's simply a testament to his consistent capabilities."

The remaining starting quarterbacks boast impressive backgrounds, yet their journeys to their current teams highlight that enduring a challenging season, which grants a team the opportunity to select a franchise quarterback with a top pick, isn't always the sole route to success.

After securing two consecutive playoff berths with Alex Smith as the quarterback, the Chiefs made a daring move by trading two first-round picks and a third-rounder to climb 17 spots in the draft to select Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes spent most of his rookie season as a backup, the Chiefs made a pivotal decision to trade Alex Smith. This move marked the beginning of an impressive run, with the team reaching six consecutive conference title games—an accomplishment that stands as the second-longest streak in history. During this period, Mahomes secured two Super Bowl victories as a two-time MVP.

In the subsequent year, the Ravens engaged in a trade to reenter the first round, selecting Lamar Jackson with the intention of having him replace Super Bowl 47 MVP Joe Flacco. Jackson assumed the starting role midway through his rookie season, clinched the MVP award the following year, and earned first-team All-Pro honors in the current season. The Ravens, much like the Chiefs, reaped the benefits of pursuing a young quarterback despite having a seasoned veteran as the incumbent starter.

"But for those guys to have that foresight, and the ability to develop along the way, with a player-coach partnership, it does speak to how well that they do things upstairs.” Justin Tucker remarked on the front office's choice to select Jackson in the draft. "But for those guys to have that foresight, and the ability to develop along the way, with a player-coach partnership, it does speak to how well that they do things upstairs.”

For over a decade, the Lions pinned their hopes on a quarterback selected as the No. 1 overall pick following their dismal 0-16 record in the 2008 season, bringing Matthew Stafford into the fold. However, a combination of poor management decisions and the failure to build a competitive supporting cast resulted in a disappointing twelve seasons with Stafford, marked by a lack of playoff success. Seeking a change, Detroit traded Stafford to the Rams, where he quickly secured a Super Bowl victory in his inaugural season. In return, the Lions acquired two valuable first-round picks and absorbed the substantial contract of Jared Goff, forming a pivotal part of the exchange.

Surprisingly, Goff, who had previously played a key role in taking the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018, demonstrated an exceptional performance in Detroit. Capitalizing on the extra draft picks acquired in the trade, the Lions strategically strengthened their roster around Goff. As a result, Detroit finds itself in the conference title game for the second time in the Super Bowl era, a significant achievement underscored by a victory over the very team that had cast Goff aside just three years ago.

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