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06 June 2024
Celtics vs. Mavericks in 2024 NBA Finals: Tight Series Forecasted to End in Historic Upset

Celtics vs. Mavericks in 2024 NBA Finals: Tight Series Forecasted to End in Historic Upset

This basketball season was all the more intense as it started with the NBA final in June 2023 after a seven-month off season and ended in May 2023. The season ending and grueling 2024 NBA Finals will on one hand have the Western Conference’s 3rd seed Dallas Mavericks 50-32 who earned their right to compete in the finals by having the best record overall while on the other hand, there is the Eastern champs and the 2nd seeded Boston Celtics 64-18.

 

Celtics are aiming at the 18th championship this time in the first ever postseason clash with the Heat winning their last championship in 2008 in the presence of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett. The current Dallas team is directed by Jason Kidd and is aiming on bringing another title after the victory of 2011 that was won by Dirk Nowitzki. The NBA Finalsis scheduled to start at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday. ET.

 

 

Regular Season Recap

 

1st Game

 

The previous matchup before the Mavericks made a roster overhaul at the trade deadline took place in January where the Celtics emerged victorious with a score of 119-110. Josh Green starting and Tim Hardaway JR playing 32 minutes off the bench because Gafford and Washington are out. For instance, Porziņģis did not partake in the games because of pain in his right knee. Tatum and Brown scored 73 points total and took 43 shots, but the game wasn’t bad for Boston at all.

 

Brown managed to limit Dončić’s impact on the game on the scoring end, while both Holiday and Horford shot SG:AG 8/18 from the three-point line. Dončić scored 33 points, made 18 rebounds, and had 13 assists in 40 minutes but had needed 30 shots to do that.

 

2nd Game

 

Kidd changed the starting five to include Gafford and Washington, Boston applied pressure from the get-go with a 13-2 run before running away to a resounding 138-110 win. Using Porziņģis effectively, the Celtics conducted their plays through him and utilized ball-screen in half court and transition. This strategy trapped Mavericks defenders in making hurried decisions and left them exposed for Porziņģis’s pick-and-pop three-point shooting.

 

In Boston, Porziņģis’ presence made the team significantly more efficient on the offense, scoring at a rate of 1. 44 points per possession in the first quarter and maintaining a remarkable 1. 41 points for the game per possession—statistics that top even the season average in the league. This version of the Celtics poses a nightmare for other bench tacticians—a team with five players who dare to screen, dribble, pass or shoot.

 

 

Celtics journey to the Finals 

 

Important acquisitions were made in Boston’s core, with commits Kristaps Porziņgis and Jrue Holiday, and fortified the team of All-NBA wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Al Horford by excelling in every challenge. They had a standing of 11-2 and did not loss a single match with this powerful team.

 

This means that from the times the Celtics were able to score they outscored opponents an average of 11.3 rate of 3 points per 100 possessions, meaning that the team is first both in the NBA offense and third in the NBA defense. The team easily secured a playoff spot becoming one of the NBA’s 26 teams which won 64 or more games and positioned itself 14 games ahead of the second placed New York Knicks.

 

They have benefitted from the relative ease of a relatively favorable first-two rounds since some of their key players were not available in full strength during the playoffs; for instance, the Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton only featured in two games, the Heat had no Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier , and the Cavaliers’ two best players, Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell, featured more sparingly. In addition, thanks to their favorable schedule, the Boston even lost only two games in three series, having lost Porziņgis to a calf strain in the fourth game against Miami.

 

 

Mavericks Journey to the Finals

 

The Mavericks have changed by realizing the potential. They were only three games above the previous year. 500 on February 4th, sitting eighth in the West, and potentially having to go through another play-in game despite Luka Dončić playing like an MVP.

 

However, the signing of Washington and Gafford made the difference. They have since gone 34-14, a 58-win pace. They were 28-9, a 62-win pace, after Kidd’s lineup changes. They were 28-7, a 66-win pace, although Dallas lost two games with Dončić and Irving on the bench.

 

They have beaten the league’s best defense and the western conference’s top seed. Although height and athleticism are factors that limit the team on defense, Luka and Kyrie have the best showings on the offense. They have two excellent playmakers who can match any defense when it comes to the crunch.

 

This year’s Mavericks may be the best team since Dirk Nowitzki if he returns and plays, though the Celtics is a slight favorite due to Dončić, Irving, and more defensive strength.

 

Biggest X-factor

 

Despite shooting fewer 3-pointers than Boston, the Mavericks are particularly good at their most crucial kind of 3-pointers: corner 3s. In the regular season, they were leading the league in terms of successfully attempted 3-point shots from the corner, and they have a success rate of 39.4% in the postseason.

 

Thanks to his playmaking skills, Dončić ranks in the top of the league in assists that lead to corner threes. According to some statistics, Jones and Washington are leading the postseason in corner conversions respectively, so these two have been his primary targets during the playoffs. They played a significant role when Dallas was facing strong opponents such as OKC.

 

Whether or not Dallas succeeds in replicating the upset against Boston will depend on players such as Washington, Jones, Green, Exum, and their consistent ability to make corner shot. Thanks to Boston’s tough defense, the number of such attempts have been restricted to mere 6.9% of their shots in the playoffs, which means that the job becomes even harder.

 

If Luka and Kyrie are able to answer the challenge posed by Boston defensively then it might force a reaction that can create space for the other role players on Dallas. To challenge these shots and expect a better result, the players in the Boston team must display good defensive rotations.

 

Prediction: Dallas in 7

 



 

Doncic and Irving, in my opinion, will help the Mavericks win more games if they play them close to the finish.

 

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